Because cynicism is what helps you through the day…

I took a longer-than-expected "sabbatical" from blogging to spend time to take care of a few errands I have been ignoring. So far, my "sabbatical" has been well spent, works are in order and prioritized. In the mean time, I am hoping to get back on the blog sphere with semi-regular postings.

This week trading has been good. I have been extracting a few dollars here and there since last Friday. On Sunday, I was selling GBP in Asia and was only planning to extract a small profit and go to bed early. Yet, things went unexpectedly well and I ended up staying up all night, selling selling and selling until I wound up with a position that was too large to sleep on. Needless to say, it was one of the best night and I finished passing out around 7' in the morning.

Today, I gave back some money playing with Silver. Silly me, this is the zillion-th times I got killed by silver spikes. This has got to a point for me to think as if I were some kind of werewolf ! On the other hand, I am still paying attention to the gold market. I am looking for a jump in gold demand. If it happens, that would be a 'bet the house' trade for me.

As of this writing, Vn-Index has broken the 300 support level despite the recently announced $1bn stimulus plan from the government. If things doesn't change and bounce back in few hours, I expect a selling bloodbath tomorrow after which is a good time to be buying. That's my plan A. We'll see how it goes. It's now a time to be greedy, not panic.

With the world being immune to any shocking economic news and global recession is now a matter a fact, there aren't anything interesting to talk about recently but pirates. (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/27/world/africa/27pirates.html ) In my humble opinion, the increasing popularity of pirates can be traced to a single man.

Jonny Deep, a.k.a captain Jack Sparrow.

Mr. Deep has single-handedly made pirating a glamorous career – one that is full of adventures, romance and fabulous cosmetic. The implication is that the world we live in finds evil far more attractive than those who fight it. Who wouldn't want to be the Joker after "The Dark Knight" or Gabriel after "Swordfish"? So, so long as the pirates at loose, remember to thank Mr. Deep, the man who made eyeliner for men cool again.

Today's celebrity in the spot light is Jessica Alba. Follow is an image of her in 2009 Campari calendar (a liquor brand)

how remarkable it is to have this body after giving birth to a baby. It really gives women out there hope that they too can look this good after child bearing. Don't stop dreaming, ladies. All you need is a full-time trainer and a Photoshop expert !)

And I am very sorry about the comic.

-k

Comments

[T]

There would be no bloodbath selling in VN market IMHO. By looking at the volume over the past few weeks, it is relatively low. Investors have been suffering and they are hanging in there pretty well. I expected VN Index to break the 300 mark anytime since last week(this is NOT a real support level, just a psychological support level). My support level is 274 but I highly doubt that VN Index would ever hit that. We will see a bounce to around 305-310 by next Fri.

The past week has been ok, my large chunk of capital is in GBP so not much gain in term of $ even though stocks rallied the past week. Well, someone's lost is someone's gain. Good for you.

[knguyen]

Hello T,

To be picky, there will be no bloodbath in the next two days. I forgot it was Friday when I wrote the entry :).

To me, TA is just a visualization of mass psychology. Technical and psychological support level are just two faces of the same coin.

The fact that investors brushed away the news of $1bn stimulus package suggested a strong bearish sentiment. Adding the ODA uncertainty, the bear is doubled. I will be more comfortable buying after another dip because it is likely downward pressure is exhausted at that point. If the market bounces back right away, I will rather be on the sideways because it is telling me there is something driving the market I don't know.

-k

So you are not interested in TA, fair enough!

I have to admit I don't invest in VN Index, I don't really follow them. All I do is looking at the data and make my humble guesses.

About the ODA thing, I thank jp for that but are the Japaneses really doing us a favor or have they been benefited from pouring money into VN for the past years? Most of the big infrastructure construction projects in VN are built by JP companies using ODA, everywhere I go, I could see "Matsimuto, ..." (pls bear with my spelling, I always find Japanese is hard to learn even after latinize), so in fact the money we borrow start flowing back to JP. That is normal with ODA but taking into account the base interest rate in JP is around 0%, 0.5% mark, lending money to us and get 2,3% interest rate + revenue for their companies + good country image + put their companies in decent position in a fast growing emerging market without much competition is not a bad investment. I could see construction companies are lobbying heavily behind the scene for JP to continue with ODA in VN.

This year, even without the JP ODA, if I recollect myself correctly, we still attract $5.x bil, that is a pretty good amount of money consider the foggy economy climate. It seems like other countries are dying to get a foot or limb in VN too. So, do we want JP ODA? Yes we do. Do we need it? I doubt that.

Next is the $1 bil stimulus package, does anyone have any idea how are they going to spend that?

If I would invest in VN Index, I would be looking for a very long term investment. I can't see any ground for a huge rally like the dow with the ill liquidity. Investors are scared away. Even if there is, it would be driven by a small number of investors with low volume. Having said that VN Index does look promising.

Yes, I agree with you, bear still dominates the market. But I can see the dim light behind the tunnel. History proved the market recovers 7,8 months ahead of real economy. Many economists predicted economy would recover in Q4 09, which means we could see a bottom very soon. Hooray.

Good luck for this week.

[knguyen]

I really like your argument about the ODA. They are insightful. Nevertheless, I do think we semi-need the ODA from Japan because there is a country image we need to uphold if we would like to receive ODA from other countries in the future. So far, Japan only 'suspend' the program. It is not 'canceled'. I wonder if there is another explanation along the effect of global recession Japan (and other big economies) is facing.

I am looking for long-term investment in Vietnam. I can see a dim light at the end of the tunnel. We have moved from 'fight-it' stage to 'accept-it' stage. I am looking for an 'external shock' that can fundamentally change the market direction.

As I mention, I bought a bit after Vn-Index closed at 288 on Monday.

-k

[Nguyễn Phương Thanh]

Dạ, nếu xét ở VN-Index thôi thì có một tình hình là các nhà đầu tư sẽ 'chơi' cho đến khi nào CP đổi cái chính sách về thuế thu nhập cá nhân mặc kệ thế giới ạ.